Friday, December 24, 2004

Dwindling dot

Megumi Yokota was a 13 year old schoolgirl who disappeared from a beach near her home in Japan in 1977. When President Koizumi visited Pyongyang 2 years ago, Kim Jong Il apologised for abductions of Japanese nationals, of whom she was one. After years of teaching Japanese language and culture in North Korea, Megumi allegedly committed suicide. Eight of the dozen or so abductees are allegedly dead. (One of the survivors married the defector Charles Jenkins.) If the story of abduction is incredible, so too is the aftermath.

Disgusted by the return of cremated remains which it claims (according to DNA tests) cannot be hers, Japan has already halted food aid. It seems only a matter of time before other sanctions. What would they achieve, though?

Trade sanctions hit the poorest. The élite are the last to suffer. Kim Jong Il's record gives little cause for hope that he would take steps to protect the powerless from starvation if it will cost him loss of face.

What outcome would satisfy the Japanese? Over 70% are in favour of sanctions. The motive seems to be punitive - understandable, but unlikely to get the world much further forward.

Not everyone is in favour of sanctions. Masao Okonogi, who teaches Korean Studies at Keio University, argues on asahi.com that sanctions should be used as a last resort. Even then, it's not clear from the article what they are supposed to achieve. Everyone wants DPRK to return to the nuclear negotiating table. This doesn't seem to have much to do with Megumi, but it's right there in his article.

And the western press is talking up the instability of the régime. There seems to be no way, yet, of knowing the truth.

I don't begin to understand this. It seems rather like bashing an old-fashioned TV set in the hope that it will make it work.





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